From: afoxland@starband.net
Date: Thu, 01/02/03
Anne Landman Posting Date: Thursday, January 2, 2003Technological Forecasting
for Tobacco to 900000
Company/Source: Brown & Williamson
Document Date: Jan 1976
Length: 25 pages
Bates No. 670118373/8397
URL: http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/126934.html
PDF Version:
http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=tww79e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
This curious 1976 Brown & Williamson (B&W) forecasting document
appears to list factors that B&W believed could affect tobacco sales through the
year 1990. Page two of the document (Bates No. 670118374) contains mathematical
equations such as
N = NO + (NS-ND)
...where "NO" = "number of users in prior period", "NS" = "number of
new users" of tobacco products), "ND" (number of product "dropouts").
The category "New users" was defined by "number relapses, number
teenagers, product characteristics, alternatives...parents, peers,
opportunity..." Number of doses per day was determined by factors such as
"[smoking] opportunities, satiation, price, consumer income..."
The category of "dropouts" (from using the product) is described
as "number deaths, anti-smoking graduates, alternatives, propaganda..."
Subsequent pages list lifestyle factors that could potentially
affect tobacco use, including:
"ghetto culture (drug use, etc.), transcendental meditation...drug
habits, attitudes...compatibility of future drugs...moral outlook...hedonism
(immediacy of pleasure)"
A category called "Use System" (Bates page 670118182) lists
existing and predicted forms of tobacco administration including things like
"chewing gum, toothpaste, shavecream, suppository, syringe kit, implant,
cooking..." The next page, entitled "Method of drug application" includes
"injectible, aerosol, spray, smoke, lotion, solution, implantation," and
"ingestion." Below that, an amount of drug (nicotine) is listed,
"1.6 mg for non-smokers (causes dizziness, nausea, vomiting)
6.5 mg for smokers (causes no untoward effects)"
(The above appears to indicate knowledge of development of a
tolerance level for nicotine, considered by many to be a hallmark of addiction.)
"Body entry points" proposed by the list include "mouth, nose,
armpit, knee joint, elbow joint" and "skin." "Absorption point[s] for Systemic
Effects" include "mouth, lungs throat, nose, anal, vaginal, intestinal, skin"
and "bloodstream."
"Action Point[s]" include the "brain...bloodstream, respiratory
system" and "central nervous system (CNS)."
"Physiological utilities and functions" include "dependence,
tolerance, antiobesity...cardiovascular effects (constriction), mobilization of
blood sugar...slowing of reactions...addictive (nicotine)..."
The list of "Medical diseases" includes "emphysema,
asthma...coronary artery disease...cancer of tongue,
lip...miscellaneous..accidents-fire, allergies, withdrawal symptoms...Problems
of Pregnancy...spontaneous abortion, low birth weight, infant mortality, infant
neurological damage..." and much more.
Other categories listed include physiological and psychological
utilities and functions of tobacco (the latter list includes "wish for adult
status" and "rebellion against authority,") technology affecting growth,
processing and formulation of "dose-forms" of tobacco and alternatives to
tobacco (which include marijuana, "synthetic drugs," "Zen Buddhism,"
"self-hypnosis" and "Yoga.")
The entire document is fascinating and offers an intimate view of
how the tobacco industry views its own products, the position that tobacco
products hold in human culture, they industry's knowledge about their products'
physical, physiological and psychological effects on consumers, and how and why
tobacco products appeal to consumers.
Quotes
Numerous quotes from the document are included in the summary
above, but there is much more contained in the document than we can reasonably
print here. Please see the document images for more quotes (the entire document
is of interest).
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Company: Brown & Williamson
Author: Presumed corporate author Brown & Williamson Tobacco
Company
Recipient: Presumed corporate recipient Brown & Williamson
Tobacco Company
Subject: drug use
appetite suppressant
Health Effects
market forecast
market trend
marketing research
Region: N/A - Presumed United States
Type: REPT, REPORT, OTHER
CHAR, CHART
GRAPHIC
REPORT
Litigation: 10004026
Named Organization:
National Institute of Health
Federal Trade Commission (Enforcement agency for laws against
deceptive advertising)
Enforces laws against false and deceptive
advertising, including ads for tobacco products. Ensures proper display of
health warnings in ads and on tobacco products;collects and reports to Congress
information concerning cigarette and smokeless tobacco advertising, sales
expenditures, and the tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide content of cigarettes.
National Cancer Institute NCI Division of Cancer
Prevention and Control, National Cancer Institute located in Rockville, MD
Named Person: Hart/X
Kennedy/X
Moss/X
ACS, American Cancer Society (U.S.A.)
FDA, Food And Drug Administration (U.S.A.)
OSHA, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (U.S.A.)
EPA, Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.A.)
CPSA, Consumer Products Safety Administration (U.S.A.)
IRS, Internal Revenue Service (U.S.A)
Department of Agriculture (U.S.A.)
MCI
U.S. Department of Justice
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American Lung Association of Colorado
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