doc-alert

Anne LandmanPosting Date:  Wednesday, November 2, 2005
Reverse Hypothesis
Document Date: 20 May 1974
Length: 1 page
Bates No. 1005081339
URL of this posting (includes document images):
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/1005081339.html
Document Images Only: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/elz28e00

    In casting about for something other than tobacco to blame for causing lung
disease in smokers, employees of tobacco companies came up with some imaginative
hypotheses. The "Carotene Hypothesis" attempted to blame lung cancer on a high
intake of dietary carotene: (http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/col98e00 --also
known as the "Carrot Memo"). Another view, promoted for some time, was the
"Constitutional Hypothesis" which claimed that a genetic defect caused some
human beings to "have difficulty adapting to the problems of existence." Thus,
they proposed, smoking behavior was a substitute for people's normal coping
mechanisms: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/dys53e00). But one of the most
bizarre hypotheses was the "Reverse Hypothesis," in which a Philip Morris vice
president, Jetson Lincoln, tried to find some way to prove that that lung
disease causes smoking. This 1974 memo about the Reverse Hypothesis (which
Lincoln admitted was self-serving) was sent to PM Principal Scientist, Ray
Fagan, to inquire if there was some way to test the hypothesis.

-----------------------------------------
Notes: This document was first posted on November 22, 1999. The links to
document images have been updated.
---------------------------
  Text of Memo

  Dr. R. Fagan 


  J. E. Lincoln

  Reverse Hypothesis

  May 20, 1974

  No doubt you have seen the recent reference to the study in England in which
it was reported that children in smoking families were more inclined to have
lung problems than children in non-smoking families.

  Those whose minds are already made up will, of course, assume that this is
another basis for indicting cigarette smoking. However, it seems to me that it
could just as easily support the "constitutional theory." As a matter of fact,
it reminded me of the idea that I rejected for so many years because it seemed
so sell-serving, namely, the idea that lung problems cause smoking. As you will
recall, the main reason I have recently dared to think about this reverse
hypothesis a little bit is the inexplicably high incidence of cigarette smoking
among workers who are occupationally exposed to lung irritants.

  I am writing you partly to remind you of the idea and partly to ask if you can
think of any way of testing the "reverse hypothesis. "

  JEL:rg

  cc: A. Holtzman 
  J. C. Bowling
------------------------------------------------------------------
  Company 
  Philip Morris 
  Author 
  Lincoln, Jetson E. (VP Philip Morris) 
  Director and Assistant Director of Market Research, VP of Strategic Research,
Director of Marketing-Planning Tobacco Production-Consumer Product Division, and
most recently VP. 
  Recipient 
  Fagan, Raymond (Principal Scientist, Philip Morris, c. 1968-83) 
  Principal Scientist at Philip Morris Research Center in Richmond, Virginia,
between around 1968-84. 

  Region 
  United States 
  Litigation 
  Stmn/Produced 
  Type 
  MEMO, MEMORANDUM 
  Subject 
  health effects 

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